Monday, December 03, 2007

Based on 433 Registered voters who say they won't vote for Hillary Clinton...

I admit I don't have a huge amount of confidence in polls, they are fun to talk about, fun to blog about but the reality is despite the scientific claims of how accurate polling is, the bottom line reality of any poll is it really only tells you how that particular group of people feel. All too often the media and some of us in the blogsphere make a huge deal about polls, such as this one from Gallup that is What is behind the anti-Hillary Sentiment. Out of 1,024 adults contacted, 433 stated they would not vote for Hillary. What makes this a big deal? Beyond the catchy headline, the actual results of this poll don't even suggest that out of those 1024 people that Hillary was the one most said they would not consider voting for. Nor are the numbers that far off from her and the other two Democratic candidates. 40% said they would "defintely not vote for" Obama and 42% said they would "definitely not vote for" Edwards, with the person most of the 1024 stated they would "definitely not vote for" being Mitt Romney with 56% of the 1024.

What's interesting is the poll does not go into details as to why people selected the other candidates as ones they would "definitely not vote for", it only focused on Hillary Clinton. This alone makes it suspect as a valid comparison even if you believed in the validity of polls.

I predict only bits and pieces of this poll will be covered, with the information cherry picked to make it appear more against Clinton than the reality of what the numbers show. That's what I take issue with most about this type of polling, so I urge you to read what the poll really states and all of the information that is included and decide for yourself if you feel the 1024 people polled are a large enough group to make this the big news item that it appears is trying to be made of it.

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