Monday, February 11, 2008

Obama supposedly dominating but not the front runner

In a situation that can only be described as wanting to have your cake and eat it too, comes from Chris Cillizza's The FixCam Week:

His campaign put out a memo to that effect late Sunday, simultaneously making the argument that Obama has dominated the early contests AND that Clinton is the frontrunner.
"Barack Obama has won nearly twice as many states as Hillary Clinton," writes campaign manager David Plouffe. "He won a Red State, Purple State, and Blue States this weekend -- showing he has broad national appeal and can win in every corner of this country."

In the next breath (actually, one paragraph later) Plouffe is casting his candidate as the underdog.

"While Obama's victories demonstrate his broad national appeal, he still faces an uphill battle in every upcoming contest because the Clintons are far better known and have a political machine that's been honed over two decades," Plouffe writes.

One thing is clear and that is Obama is continuing to do well in states where there are large numbers of black voters. It's also clear that when it comes to winning caucuses Obama has done well. An interesting thing about caucuses are that they are not democratic in nature, there is no privacy of an individual vote and the very nature of how the caucuses are held does not enable everyone to be involved in the process as happens during a traditional primary. According to CNN Clinton still holds a slight advantage when it comes to delegates, they have her listed as having 1,148 and Barack Obama as having 1,121.

The Clinton campaign is already stating what is known to be obvious that they most likely will not win DC, Maryland or Virginia, with the majority of the voting block in DC being black, the question being asked by many including Cillizza is not will Obama win DC but by how large of a margin. It could very well come down to Ohio having a much larger impact on the Democratic Presidential race than any of us expected when it was declared that Obama was the winner after Iowa...

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