Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Flee the greenhouse gases!

Okay I'm skeptical. I don't believe that global warming is as huge of an issue as some try to make it. I'm not saying that global warming does not exist, or that greenhouse gases have increased, however I doubt the claims of the effects as touted by the media. Things like this irritate me (from the above linked Washington Post):

Extreme weather events -- including heat waves, floods and drought -- are likely to become more common over the next century in the United States because of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study by Purdue University researchers.

Under this scenario, which assumes the amount of carbon dioxide in the air will roughly double over the next 100 years, the coldest days of the year in the Northeast will be as much as 18 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, and the temperatures currently experienced on the 18 hottest days of the year in the Washington area will prevail for two months.

The Southwest will become drier and hotter, the paper predicts, while the Gulf Coast will become warmer and experience less frequent, but more intense, rains.


Sounds pretty scary doesn't it? Until.....

But Patrick J. Michaels, a senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute, questioned the Purdue paper because the scientists assumed carbon dioxide concentrations would double.

"That's not going to happen," said Michaels, who has accepted funding from coal, gas and mining interests opposed to mandatory curbs on greenhouse gas emissions. "These are very high assumptions that are not borne out by reality."

Diffenbaugh said his team did choose "a high-end scenario" in predicting future greenhouse gas emissions. He said it took five months to run the climate model on a supercomputer, and said he and other scientists did not have the time to calculate the impact of less carbon dioxide pollution.


I got curious, so I did some research. In Hawaii they have been doing research on carbon dioxide concentrations since 1958, which is supposedly longer than anyone else has been collecting numbers. What do these numbers show?

The Mauna Loa record shows a 19.4% increase in the mean annual concentration, from 315.98 parts per million by volume (ppmv) of dry air in 1959 to 377.38 ppmv in 2004. The 1997-1998 increase in the annual growth rate of 2.87 ppmv represets the largest single yearly jump since the Mauna Loa record began in 1958. This represents an average annual increase of 1.4 ppmv per year. This is smaller than the average annual increase at the other stations because of the longer record and inclusion of earlier (smaller) annual increases.

Yes, in 46 years there was a 19.4% increase, and the largest increase? Is not now. The increase for 2004 was 1.82, the increase for 2003 was 2.53, the increase for 2002 was 2.04, 2001 was 1.57....

Sooo, if you walk out into the street? You might get hit by a bus, but then again? Maybe you won't. Yes, yes, most of these people deal with worst case scenario situtions to hit us with because it makes cooler headlines. However, when you continually predict the worse and it doesn't happen? Some of us start to not believe you. So HURRY the world might end...then again? Maybe it won't.

6 comments:

Tim said...

The Earth will survive whatever is thrown at it... literally. We have evidence that comets & asteroids have hit the planet, and life came back. Are the things we do to the Earth going to make it uninhabitable? I doubt it. Will the Earth become a become a crappy place to live? Probably.

Everybody seems to take one of two points of view on this subject: The Sky Is Falling or Bury Your Head In The Sand. I am sure we are doing damage to the planet through air polution, the destruction of rainforests, and waste, waste, waste, but the planet will survive. We're really pretty insignificant in terms of geological time. We'll eventually die off (I'm sure the victoms of our own hubris), and the world will produce some other group to take over major combat operations.

What I don't understand is why people feel the need to save money for a rainy day (hell, they collect all kinds of things they don't need), but in the off chance that skin cancer rates go up and oxygen disappears, and many animal and plant species that are unique and intersting become extinct, why not do what we can to Save the Earth for an Acid Rainy Day?

It's a pain in the ass to be responsible, that's why. I prefer to let someone else's kids have to deal with the problem, and just stay childless myself.

Ah! A clear conscience with little or no work at all. Refreshing!

Hooda Thunkit (Dave Zawodny) said...

”Extreme weather events -- including heat waves, floods and drought -- are likely to become more common over the next century in the United States because of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study by Purdue University researchers.” - Purdue University (a.k.a. P.U.)

IMO, this should read more like this:

Extreme weather events -- including heat waves, floods and drought -- are likely to become more common over the next century in the United States because of human-generated gas, emanating from a load of crap being spread by a group of Purdue University researchers.

These “researchers” have an agenda, rooted in acquiring fame, fortune, or influence…

In the real world, this would go something like this:

Extreme weather events -- including heat waves, floods and drought -- are likely to become more common over the next century in the United States because of long-term weather patterns or cycles.

Maybe if some of these guys lived to be 200 years old and observed the longer trends, they might begin to understand that in Nature’s terms, their piddley 30-40 year careers are but a blink of an eye in relation to the global weather patterns.

In the end it's always about the money, the power, and the influence (of power)...

Unknown said...

HT, I'd have no problem with it if they would have used figures that were close to being remotely accurate but doubling does not seem to be possible given the amount of increases the past 46 years.

Should we do a better job of taking care of Mother Earth? Of course, but this type of research when they admit they used the high extreme shouldn't be all over the media, yet it will.

Thanks Tim, I'd put myself somewhere in the middle of the sky might be falling so when it does I might want to hide my head.

:-)

Hooda Thunkit (Dave Zawodny) said...

Lisa,
That doubling thing is what we would call a SWAG calculation...

(scientific wild-assed guess)

:-)

Unknown said...

Major SWAG....

Supreme SWAG....

:-)

Cyberseaer said...

I'm all for the greenhouse effect and global warming. Less snow to shovel in the winter and my ACs work for the summer. Bring it on baby! :)