Wednesday, April 23, 2008

What to me is the main question

While most of the title linked New York Times piece could be viewed as supportive of Clinton dropping out of the race due to the "bruising" that will continue, this one part for me is something I think is important:
Still, the voting patterns on Tuesday underlined what has been one of Mrs. Clinton’s central arguments to Democratic Party leaders in asserting that Mr. Obama would have trouble as a general election candidate. Once again, as in Ohio six weeks ago, he is struggling to win support from the kinds of voters that could be critical to a Democratic victory in the fall. Mrs. Clinton posed the question bluntly on Tuesday.

“Considering his financial advantage, the question ought to be, why can’t he close the deal?” Mrs. Clinton said outside a polling place in a northern suburb of Philadelphia. “Why can’t he win in a state like this?”

Silliest argument I heard from an Obama supporter on Larry King tonight, that Obama coming from Clinton being 33% ahead in the polls to ten percent is a major victory. First, the numbers were more like 20 and polls are never reliable that far out if at all and secondly, Obama spent more than three to one more than Clinton and still lost by ten points.

Sad reality is with the screwy way delegates are awarded, even a large doesn't always equal large numbers of delegates. While it's not as undemocratic as the caucuses are, it's still something that makes the process even more complicated than it needs to be.


joe73072 said...

but SHE is the inevitable candidate, remember? SHE is the one who lead in PA by 30% just a few months ago.
why can't SHE close the deal?

mark skeldon said...

It's a valid point Clinton brings up, but the argument is not entirely persuasive to me.

If Obama gets the nomination, he won't be running against her, he'll be running against McCain. While she surely has done better with working class white Americans, if she is not in the race I think most of her supporters would vote for Obama. I know, they say right now that they would not, but that's because they're in the middle of a heated race.

If Obama wins the nomination, and people have time to cool off, I think that Clinton supporters will realize that Obama is a better candidate for them (based on their stances on the issues). If she does not catch him in delegates, votes, or states, the electability issue will, I believe, be unpersuasive to superdelegates. To much of it is based on conjecture. While some of the conjecture is valid, I don't think it will be enough for the superdelagates to "override" the only 3 objective measures of who most democrats want as a nominee.

Further I believe that if Clinton does not win Indiana that the pressure for her to drop out will become so overwhelming that she will drop out.

Lisa Renee said...

Mark, I agree that some of those saying they would never vote for Obama and some of those who say they would never vote for Clinton most likely will.

The electibility issue is one that Dean confirmed as reported in the Blade:

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said superdelegates should make known their choices on the Democratic nominee for president by the end of June. Ultimately, he said he believes their decisions will be based on who is more electable, rather than necessarily who has the most pledged delegates, because that is what party rules stipulate.

"This is essentially pretty close to a tie here," Dean said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"What's going to happen in the last nine primaries is there's going to be some feeling at some point that one of these candidates is more likely to win than the other and that person will get the nomination. I can't tell you who that is, I have no idea who that is, but that's what's going to happen," Dean said.

Dean also said he expected the party to heal from the bitter primary race if superdelegates make their decisions in June and that he believes Michigan and Florida delegates will be "seated in some way."

He's basically confirmed that it won't be about who has the most delegates...

Joe, she is closing the gap, I realize many Obama supporters are quoting the 30% poll but the reality is it was more like 20% - how many times has either Obama or Clinton won in the numbers predicted in polls?

Scott G said...

I still will not vote for Senator Clinton even if she wins. President Clinton just annoys me when I see him now and I used to think he was an alright politician, a bad husband, but an alright politician. Now, I am not sure if he loves American or Bill Clinton more. I am not sold on Obama, but I know I am not buying Clinton.

I am still trying to find a way to get Edwards back into it. Maybe if it goes to the convention people on both sides will be so sick of the other side that Edwards can step in and save us all.

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